In an increasingly volatile world, where global politics regularly intersects with technological innovation, business leaders face challenges like never before. The Boardwave Geopolitical Risk Dinner, hosted by our CEO and Co-Founder Phill Robinson, and sponsored by AWS and Hg, brought together key figures to address these pressing issues. With insights from Rupert Jones, a former Major General in the British Army, who was in conversation with Kenneth Cukier, Deputy Executive Editor of The Economist, the evening underscored the critical need for businesses to rethink their approach to risk management.
Why Geopolitical Risk is Now a Boardroom Issue
Phill Robinson began the evening by reflecting on the traditional approach to risk that most companies follow. "As leaders we had risk registers and contingency plans, but how often did software companies think about geopolitical risk in the past? Almost never,” he said. Robinson emphasised that geopolitical risks are becoming increasingly intertwined with corporate risks, and businesses can no longer rely solely on governments to mitigate these threats. “The line between sovereign risk and corporate risk is blurring,” he added.
Robinson’s remarks set the stage for an in-depth discussion led by Rupert Jones, who presented a stark reality: today’s business leaders need to account for the growing intersection of geopolitical forces and technological changes, which directly affect their operations.
Rupert Jones on the Erosion of Global Stability
Rupert Jones, with 30 years of experience leading military and inter-agency teams, then took the stage, offering a stark reminder of how dramatically the geopolitical landscape has shifted. “The world has shifted to a multipolar one,” Jones began. “The geopolitical checks and balances that have kept the world relatively stable since World War II are no longer there. Strategic shocks are hitting us at a previously unthinkable pace.”
Jones pointed to recent global events to illustrate how unprepared many companies are for these shocks. “COVID, Brexit, the insurrection in the U.S., financial crises, the wars in Ukraine, and Middle East, supply chain disruptions - these are all destabilising forces that are increasing in frequency and intensity,” he warned. His message was clear: today’s leaders must prepare for risks that directly impact their operations, from cyber-attacks to geopolitical conflicts. “It’s not just Russia or China that should worry you - non-state actors and the rise of disinformation pose real threats to businesses,” he added.
Europe’s Strategic Autonomy: A Fight for Technological Sovereignty
The evening’s discussion then turned to Europe’s struggle for technological sovereignty, particularly in the fields of AI. With Jones highlighting the growing risks to Europe’s economic power, should it fall behind in these critical areas. “China is aggressively expanding its technological capabilities, and Europe is in danger of being left behind if we don’t act now,” Jones cautioned.
Jones drew a vivid parallel between the current race for AI dominance and the Cold War space race, “Being at the forefront of AI and other innovations is not just an economic advantage - it’s potentially a matter of national survival,” he said, quoting a recent article by William Hague.
He urged European businesses to take an active role, rather than waiting for governments to secure Europe’s place in the technological hierarchy. “The companies that invest in AI and quantum technology today won’t just be market leaders - they’ll become national assets.”
Direct Impact on Business: Blurred Lines Between Corporate and Sovereign Risk
As the line between corporate and sovereign risk continues to blur, businesses must step up, according to Jones. “It’s no longer just governments that need to worry about national security; businesses have a responsibility here too,” Jones asserted. He shared insights from his military experience, stating, “War is no longer something fought on far-off battlefields. Today’s wars are economic, digital, and increasingly, they affect every sector.”
Jones also pointed to the very real threat of conflict spreading from regional to global impacts. “We face the very real risk of a war that may not be a global war, but will certainly have global consequences,” he warned, noting that business supply chains, workforces, and markets are vulnerable to such disruptions.
Key Insights and Lessons for Business LeadersThe evening’s discussion revealed several key takeaways that every business leader should consider. From the evolving geopolitical landscape to the rapid pace of technological change, it became clear that the strategies required to navigate today’s risks must be as dynamic as the challenges themselves:
Geopolitical Risks Must Be On Every Board’s Agenda: Rupert Jones made it clear that geopolitical risks are no longer optional for boards. “The world is more interconnected than ever, and geopolitical instability anywhere can reverberate across industries,” he said.
Technological Sovereignty Is Key: You cannot underestimate the importance of technological sovereignty for Europe’s future. “Being at the forefront of AI and quantum technology is not just about innovation - it’s about survival,” Jones emphasised, highlighting the urgency for businesses to invest in these areas.
AI as a Double-Edged Sword: AI has huge potential to reshape national security and business. Jones described how AI is already transforming warfare. “AI is transforming the battlefield as we speak. Look at what Ukraine is doing with real-time AI-driven battlefield tactics - this technology is moving faster than most businesses realise,” he said.
Building Resilience is Essential: Jones emphasised the need for companies to build resilience in all aspects of their business. “Your supply chains, your workforce, your leadership - all need to be examined in minute detail and prepared for the unexpected,” he warned. “Where are there potential weaknesses? How could you mitigate against them? Resilience is not just a buzzword; it’s a necessity.”
Closing Thoughts: The Call to Action
As the evening drew to a close, Kenneth Cukier reflected on the importance of taking these lessons forward. "It’s not just about anticipating the next crisis - it’s about building businesses that are resilient enough to thrive in a world where uncertainty is the only constant,” he urged. The conversations from the dinner left a lasting impression, reinforcing the need for businesses to prioritise geopolitical risk and technological sovereignty as core elements of their strategic planning.
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